// Activity page: live filing stream + amendment activity
// Research page: aggregate analytics — capital concentration, vintage curves, sponsor velocity
const { useState: useS_A, useEffect: useE_A, useMemo: useM_A } = React;
// ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
// ACTIVITY PAGE
// ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
function ActivityPage({ navigate }) {
const [recent, setRecent] = useS_A(null);
const [filter, setFilter] = useS_A('all'); // all | new | amend | mega
const [industry, setIndustry] = useS_A('all'); // all | COMMERCIAL | RESIDENTIAL | OTHER
const [autoRefresh, setAutoRefresh] = useS_A(true);
const [tick, setTick] = useS_A(0);
useE_A(() => {
window.api('/api/deals?real_estate=1&limit=300&sort=latest_filing_date').then(r => setRecent(r.results));
}, [tick]);
useE_A(() => {
if (!autoRefresh) return;
const id = setInterval(() => setTick(t => t + 1), 60_000);
return () => clearInterval(id);
}, [autoRefresh]);
// Derive activity from deal records (latest_filing_date + amendment_no)
const activity = useM_A(() => {
if (!recent) return null;
return recent
.filter(r => r.industry_group_type) // only known industry
.map(r => ({
...r,
kind: r.amendment_no > 0 ? 'amend' : 'new',
ts: r.latest_filing_date,
}))
.sort((a, b) => (a.ts < b.ts ? 1 : -1));
}, [recent]);
const filtered = useM_A(() => {
if (!activity) return null;
return activity.filter(r => {
if (filter === 'new' && r.kind !== 'new') return false;
if (filter === 'amend' && r.kind !== 'amend') return false;
if (filter === 'mega' && (r.total_raised || 0) < 100_000_000) return false;
if (industry !== 'all' && r.industry_group_type !== industry) return false;
return true;
});
}, [activity, filter, industry]);
// Bucket by day for the activity histogram (last 30 days)
const histogram = useM_A(() => {
if (!activity) return null;
const days = 30;
const today = new Date(); today.setHours(0, 0, 0, 0);
const buckets = Array.from({ length: days }, (_, i) => {
const d = new Date(today); d.setDate(d.getDate() - (days - 1 - i));
return { date: d.toISOString().slice(0, 10), count: 0, raised: 0, mega: 0 };
});
const idx = Object.fromEntries(buckets.map((b, i) => [b.date, i]));
for (const r of activity) {
const k = (r.latest_filing_date || '').slice(0, 10);
if (idx[k] !== undefined) {
buckets[idx[k]].count++;
buckets[idx[k]].raised += r.total_raised || 0;
if ((r.total_raised || 0) >= 100_000_000) buckets[idx[k]].mega++;
}
}
return buckets;
}, [activity]);
// Group filtered into "today / yesterday / earlier" sections
const sections = useM_A(() => {
if (!filtered) return null;
const today = new Date().toISOString().slice(0, 10);
const yest = new Date(); yest.setDate(yest.getDate() - 1);
const yesterday = yest.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
const out = { today: [], yesterday: [], thisWeek: [], earlier: [] };
const weekAgo = new Date(); weekAgo.setDate(weekAgo.getDate() - 7);
for (const r of filtered) {
const k = (r.latest_filing_date || '').slice(0, 10);
if (k === today) out.today.push(r);
else if (k === yesterday) out.yesterday.push(r);
else if (new Date(r.latest_filing_date) >= weekAgo) out.thisWeek.push(r);
else out.earlier.push(r);
}
return out;
}, [filtered]);
const stats = useM_A(() => {
if (!filtered) return null;
const last24 = filtered.filter(r => {
const ms = Date.now() - new Date(r.latest_filing_date).getTime();
return ms <= 24 * 3600 * 1000;
});
const last7d = filtered.filter(r => {
const ms = Date.now() - new Date(r.latest_filing_date).getTime();
return ms <= 7 * 24 * 3600 * 1000;
});
return {
filings24: last24.length,
raised24: last24.reduce((a, b) => a + (b.total_raised || 0), 0),
filings7d: last7d.length,
raised7d: last7d.reduce((a, b) => a + (b.total_raised || 0), 0),
megaCount: filtered.filter(r => (r.total_raised || 0) >= 100_000_000).length,
newCount: filtered.filter(r => r.kind === 'new').length,
amendCount: filtered.filter(r => r.kind === 'amend').length,
};
}, [filtered]);
return (
<>
{autoRefresh ? 'LIVE · refreshes every 60s' : 'PAUSED'}
Activity
The live raise stream. Every new filing and every amendment, in order, as they hit our index.
{/* Stat strip */}
Filings · 24h
{stats ? stats.filings24 : '—'}
{stats ? window.fmtMoney(stats.raised24) : ''} raised
Filings · 7d
{stats ? stats.filings7d : '—'}
{stats ? window.fmtMoney(stats.raised7d) : ''} raised
New raises
{stats ? stats.newCount : '—'}
in current view
Amendments
{stats ? stats.amendCount : '—'}
in current view
$100M+ raises
{stats ? stats.megaCount : '—'}
institutional scale
{/* Spotlight: biggest raise + most-amended in current window */}
{filtered && filtered.length > 0 && }
{/* Histogram */}
Filing volume · last 30 days
BARS = FILING COUNT · DOTS = $100M+ MEGA-RAISES
{/* Filter chips */}
Type
{[
{ k: 'all', l: 'All' },
{ k: 'new', l: 'New raises' },
{ k: 'amend', l: 'Amendments' },
{ k: 'mega', l: '$100M+' },
].map(o => (
))}
Industry
{[
{ k: 'all', l: 'All' },
{ k: 'COMMERCIAL', l: 'Commercial' },
{ k: 'RESIDENTIAL', l: 'Residential' },
{ k: 'OTHER', l: 'Other RE' },
].map(o => (
))}
{/* Activity stream */}
{!sections && Array.from({ length: 6 }).map((_, i) => (
))}
{sections && sections.today.length > 0 && (
)}
{sections && sections.yesterday.length > 0 && (
)}
{sections && sections.thisWeek.length > 0 && (
)}
{sections && sections.earlier.length > 0 && (
)}
{sections && Object.values(sections).every(s => s.length === 0) && (
No activity matches the current filters.
)}
{biggest && (biggest.total_raised || 0) > 0 && (
navigate({ name: 'deal', id: biggest.deal_id })}>
★ Biggest in window
{window.fmtMoney(biggest.total_raised)}
{biggest.deal_name}
{window.industryShort(biggest.industry_group_type)}
· {biggest.filings_count} filings
· {window.relTime(biggest.latest_filing_date)}
)}
{mostAmended && (mostAmended.amendment_no || 0) > 0 && (
navigate({ name: 'deal', id: mostAmended.deal_id })}>
↻ Most amended
AMD {mostAmended.amendment_no}
{mostAmended.deal_name}
{window.fmtMoney(mostAmended.total_raised || 0)} raised
· active since {new Date(mostAmended.first_filing_date).getFullYear()}
)}
{firstTimers.length > 0 && (
◆ Fresh raises
{firstTimers.map(r => (
navigate({ name: 'deal', id: r.deal_id })}>
{r.deal_name}
{window.fmtMoney(r.total_raised)}
))}
)}
{title}
{rows.length}
{rows.map((r, i) => (
navigate({ name: 'deal', id: r.deal_id })}>
{window.relTime(r.latest_filing_date).toUpperCase()}
{new Date(r.latest_filing_date).toLocaleTimeString([], { hour: '2-digit', minute: '2-digit' })}
{r.kind === 'new' ? 'NEW' : `AMD ${r.amendment_no}`}
{r.deal_name}
{window.industryShort(r.industry_group_type)}
· {r.filings_count} filing{r.filings_count > 1 ? 's' : ''}
{r.first_filing_date !== r.latest_filing_date && (
· active since {new Date(r.first_filing_date).getFullYear()}
)}
= 100_000_000 ? 'mega' : ''} ${!r.total_raised ? 'zero' : ''}`}>
{r.total_raised ? window.fmtMoney(r.total_raised) : '—'}
{(r.total_raised || 0) >= 100_000_000 &&
●}
{r.target_is_indefinite ? (
of Indefinite
) : r.target_offering_amount ? (
of {window.fmtMoney(r.target_offering_amount)}
{r.total_raised && r.target_offering_amount ? ` · ${Math.round((r.total_raised / r.target_offering_amount) * 100)}%` : ''}
) : null}
))}
);
}
function ActivityHistogram({ data }) {
const max = Math.max(...data.map(d => d.count), 1);
const W = 1200, H = 140, pad = { l: 36, r: 12, t: 10, b: 22 };
const iw = W - pad.l - pad.r, ih = H - pad.t - pad.b;
const xStep = iw / data.length;
return (
);
}
// ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
// RESEARCH PAGE
// ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
function ResearchPage({ navigate }) {
const [topSponsors, setTopSponsors] = useS_A(null); // by capital
const [bySponsorCount, setBySpCount] = useS_A(null); // by deal count
const [recent, setRecent] = useS_A(null);
const [topDeals, setTopDeals] = useS_A(null);
const [section, setSection] = useS_A('concentration'); // concentration | vintage | velocity | size
useE_A(() => {
window.api('/api/sponsors?limit=200&sort=total_raised').then(r => setTopSponsors(r.results));
window.api('/api/sponsors?limit=50&sort=deals_count').then(r => setBySpCount(r.results));
window.api('/api/deals?real_estate=1&limit=400&sort=latest_filing_date').then(r => setRecent(r.results));
window.api('/api/deals?real_estate=1&limit=20&sort=total_raised').then(r => setTopDeals(r.results));
}, []);
return (
<>
RESEARCH · ANALYTICS
Research desk
How private real-estate capital is concentrated, when it gets raised, and which sponsors are accelerating.
{[
{ k: 'concentration', l: 'Capital concentration', sub: 'Who controls the dollars' },
{ k: 'vintage', l: 'Vintage curves', sub: 'Raises by year' },
{ k: 'velocity', l: 'Sponsor velocity', sub: 'Who is most active' },
{ k: 'size', l: 'Deal size distribution',sub: 'Where the dollars sit' },
].map(t => (
))}
{(stats.top10Pct * 100).toFixed(1)}%
of top-200 capital sits with the top 10 sponsors
{window.fmtMoney(stats.top10Pct * stats.total)} of {window.fmtMoney(stats.total)} indexed
{stats.rankFor50}
sponsors hold half the indexed capital
A long-tail market with a heavy front. The 50% line falls inside the top {stats.rankFor50}.
{(stats.top50Pct * 100).toFixed(0)}%
controlled by the top 50
Top 50 = {window.fmtMoney(stats.top50Pct * stats.total)} · remaining 150 share the rest
Cumulative share of capital · top 200 sponsors
X = SPONSOR RANK · Y = % OF INDEXED CAPITAL
{topSponsors.slice(0, 20).map((s, i) => {
const pct = s.total_raised / topSponsors[0].total_raised;
return (
navigate({ name: 'sponsor', id: s.sponsor_id })}>
{String(i + 1).padStart(2, '0')}
{s.canonical_name}
{window.fmtMoney(s.total_raised)}
{s.deals_count} deals
);
})}
);
}
function ConcentrationCurve({ points }) {
const W = 1200, H = 280, pad = { l: 56, r: 18, t: 14, b: 32 };
const iw = W - pad.l - pad.r, ih = H - pad.t - pad.b;
const x = (i) => pad.l + (i / (points.length - 1)) * iw;
const y = (p) => pad.t + ih - p * ih;
const line = points.map((p, i) => `${i === 0 ? 'M' : 'L'} ${x(i).toFixed(1)} ${y(p.pct).toFixed(1)}`).join(' ');
const area = `M ${pad.l} ${pad.t + ih} ${points.map((p, i) => `L ${x(i).toFixed(1)} ${y(p.pct).toFixed(1)}`).join(' ')} L ${pad.l + iw} ${pad.t + ih} Z`;
// Reference line: equal distribution (diagonal y=x)
const refLine = `M ${pad.l} ${pad.t + ih} L ${pad.l + iw} ${pad.t}`;
// Quartile markers
const findRank = (t) => points.find(p => p.pct >= t);
const markers = [0.25, 0.5, 0.75].map(t => {
const p = findRank(t);
return p ? { t, i: p.i - 1, p } : null;
}).filter(Boolean);
return (
);
}
// ── Vintage ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
function VintageView({ recent, topSponsors }) {
const buckets = useM_A(() => {
if (!recent) return null;
const byYear = {};
for (const r of recent) {
const y = new Date(r.first_filing_date).getFullYear();
if (!byYear[y]) byYear[y] = { year: y, count: 0, raised: 0, mega: 0 };
byYear[y].count++;
byYear[y].raised += r.total_raised || 0;
if ((r.total_raised || 0) >= 100_000_000) byYear[y].mega++;
}
return Object.values(byYear).sort((a, b) => a.year - b.year);
}, [recent]);
const insights = useM_A(() => {
if (!buckets || buckets.length < 2) return null;
const peak = [...buckets].sort((a, b) => b.raised - a.raised)[0];
const last = buckets[buckets.length - 1];
const prev = buckets[buckets.length - 2];
const yoyCap = prev && prev.raised > 0 ? ((last.raised - prev.raised) / prev.raised) * 100 : null;
const yoyCnt = prev && prev.count > 0 ? ((last.count - prev.count) / prev.count) * 100 : null;
return { peak, last, prev, yoyCap, yoyCnt };
}, [buckets]);
if (!buckets) return ;
const maxCount = Math.max(...buckets.map(b => b.count), 1);
const maxRaised = Math.max(...buckets.map(b => b.raised), 1);
return (
<>
{insights?.peak.year || '—'}
peak vintage by capital
{insights ? `${window.fmtMoney(insights.peak.raised)} raised across ${insights.peak.count} SPVs · ${insights.peak.mega} of them $100M+` : '—'}
= 0 ? 'var(--pos)' : 'var(--neg)' } : undefined}>
{insights?.yoyCap != null ? `${insights.yoyCap >= 0 ? '+' : ''}${insights.yoyCap.toFixed(0)}%` : '—'}
capital YoY · {insights?.last.year} vs {insights?.prev?.year}
{insights ? `${window.fmtMoney(insights.last.raised)} this year vs ${window.fmtMoney(insights.prev?.raised || 0)} last year` : '—'}
{buckets[buckets.length - 1]?.count || '—'}
new raises started in {buckets[buckets.length - 1]?.year}
{insights?.yoyCnt != null && (
= 0 ? 'var(--pos)' : 'var(--neg)', fontWeight: 600 }}>
{insights.yoyCnt >= 0 ? '↑' : '↓'} {Math.abs(insights.yoyCnt).toFixed(0)}% vs prior year
)} · {window.fmtMoney(buckets[buckets.length - 1]?.raised || 0)} reported
Raises started, by vintage year
BARS = NEW RAISES · LINE = CAPITAL
YearNew raises$100M+CapitalAvg / raise
{[...buckets].reverse().slice(0, 8).map(b => (
{b.year}
{b.count}
{b.mega}
{window.fmtMoney(b.raised)}
{b.count ? window.fmtMoney(b.raised / b.count) : '—'}
))}
);
}
function VintageChart({ buckets, maxCount, maxRaised }) {
const W = 1200, H = 240, pad = { l: 48, r: 56, t: 16, b: 28 };
const iw = W - pad.l - pad.r, ih = H - pad.t - pad.b;
const xStep = iw / Math.max(buckets.length, 1);
const ay = (v) => pad.t + ih - (v / maxCount) * ih;
const ay2 = (v) => pad.t + ih - (v / maxRaised) * ih;
const linePath = buckets.map((b, i) => `${i === 0 ? 'M' : 'L'} ${(pad.l + xStep * (i + 0.5)).toFixed(1)} ${ay2(b.raised).toFixed(1)}`).join(' ');
return (
);
}
// ── Velocity ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
function VelocityView({ bySponsorCount, navigate }) {
if (!bySponsorCount) return ;
const maxDeals = bySponsorCount[0]?.deals_count || 1;
const top = bySponsorCount.slice(0, 30);
return (
<>
{bySponsorCount[0]?.deals_count}
{bySponsorCount[0]?.canonical_name} · most prolific in our index
{window.fmtMoney(bySponsorCount[0]?.total_raised)} raised across {bySponsorCount[0]?.deals_count} attributed SPVs
{(bySponsorCount.slice(0, 50).reduce((a, b) => a + b.deals_count, 0) / 50).toFixed(0)}
average SPVs per top-50 sponsor
Real sponsors operate at scale — usually one master entity, dozens of SPVs underneath.
Sponsor velocity · most active by SPV count
BARS = ATTRIBUTED SPVs · NUMBERS = LIFETIME CAPITAL
{top.map((s, i) => {
const pct = s.deals_count / maxDeals;
return (
navigate({ name: 'sponsor', id: s.sponsor_id })}>
{String(i + 1).padStart(2, '0')}
{s.canonical_name}
{s.deals_count} SPVs
{window.fmtMoney(s.total_raised)}
);
})}
);
}
// ── Size distribution ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
function SizeView({ recent, topDeals, navigate }) {
const buckets = useM_A(() => {
if (!recent) return null;
const tiers = [
{ l: '< $10M', lo: 0, hi: 10_000_000, count: 0, raised: 0 },
{ l: '$10M – $50M', lo: 10_000_000, hi: 50_000_000, count: 0, raised: 0 },
{ l: '$50M – $100M', lo: 50_000_000, hi: 100_000_000, count: 0, raised: 0 },
{ l: '$100M – $500M', lo: 100_000_000, hi: 500_000_000, count: 0, raised: 0 },
{ l: '$500M – $1B', lo: 500_000_000, hi: 1_000_000_000, count: 0, raised: 0 },
{ l: '$1B+', lo: 1_000_000_000, hi: Infinity, count: 0, raised: 0 },
];
let zeros = 0;
for (const r of recent) {
const v = r.total_raised || 0;
if (v === 0) { zeros++; continue; }
for (const t of tiers) {
if (v >= t.lo && v < t.hi) { t.count++; t.raised += v; break; }
}
}
return { tiers, zeros, total: recent.length };
}, [recent]);
if (!buckets || !topDeals) return ;
const totalCount = buckets.tiers.reduce((a, b) => a + b.count, 0);
const totalRaised = buckets.tiers.reduce((a, b) => a + b.raised, 0);
const maxC = Math.max(...buckets.tiers.map(t => t.count));
return (
<>
{((buckets.zeros / buckets.total) * 100).toFixed(0)}%
of recent filings report no dollar amount
Filed in advance of first sale, or fundraising abandoned. Count: {buckets.zeros} of {buckets.total}.
{(((buckets.tiers[3].raised + buckets.tiers[4].raised + buckets.tiers[5].raised) / totalRaised) * 100).toFixed(0)}%
of capital sits in $100M+ raises
{(((buckets.tiers[3].count + buckets.tiers[4].count + buckets.tiers[5].count) / totalCount) * 100).toFixed(1)}% of deals,
{' '}{((buckets.tiers[3].raised + buckets.tiers[4].raised + buckets.tiers[5].raised) / totalRaised * 100).toFixed(0)}% of dollars
Distribution by raise size
DEAL COUNT vs CAPITAL SHARE
{buckets.tiers.map(t => {
const cPct = (t.count / totalCount) * 100;
const rPct = (t.raised / totalRaised) * 100;
return (
{t.l}
{t.count} deals · {cPct.toFixed(1)}%
{window.fmtMoney(t.raised)} · {rPct.toFixed(1)}%
);
})}
{topDeals.slice(0, 12).map((d, i) => {
const pct = d.total_raised / topDeals[0].total_raised;
return (
navigate({ name: 'deal', id: d.deal_id })}>
{String(i + 1).padStart(2, '0')}
{d.deal_name}
{window.fmtMoney(d.total_raised)}
{new Date(d.first_filing_date).getFullYear()}–{new Date(d.latest_filing_date).getFullYear().toString().slice(2)}
);
})}
);
}
window.ActivityPage = ActivityPage;
window.ResearchPage = ResearchPage;